Previous events – Fall 2020
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Political polarization
On August 27, the institute held its first online event in our 2020 Election Event Series. Lilliana Mason, associate professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland at College Park, presented on political polarization. She examined the ‘partisan hostility’ between Republicans and Democrats.
Mason referred to her book, Uncivil Agreement: How Politics Became our Identity, in order to explain how the current state of American political polarization developed. She then discussed extreme instances of partisan polarization that we see in America today. Her explanation of the partisan divide focused on an analysis of social identity theory within the context of the political arena. She attributes the hyperpolarization of the contemporary era to the increasing divide among Americans along racial and religious lines.
Populism, nationalism & race
On September 2, Joe Lowndes, professor of political science at the University of Oregon, discussed populism, radicalism, and the upcoming 2020 election. Populism can be described as a technique used by politicians, claiming to expand the voices of common people to counter corrupt government officials in both parties.
Lowndes suggested that populism can be divided into left-wing and right-wing variants. He stated that for left-wing populists, the foes of the people are the economic and political elites. Meanwhile, right-wing populists define the foe based on factors such as religion, national identity, race, the state itself, and global institutions.
He noted that left-wing populism evolved in the U.S. as the 19th century peoples party, but on the other side of the political spectrum, the GOP has evolved into a more far-right populist party under the leadership and policies of President Trump. Recently, populist militias have protested across state capitals against mask-wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the majority of protestors made up of groups such as Proud Boys, anti-vaxxers, and Trump supporters. The protests centered around the conspiracy theory that COVID-19 is a hoax and that the political elites were targeting the removal of Donald Trump.
Conspiracy theories and social media
On September 9, Joe Uscinski, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, discussed the prominence of conspiracy theories in our current political climate including “QAnon” and the “Deep State”.
He showed a number of results obtained through his years of polling work, including data showing that more Americans believe in the “Deep State” than that climate change is a hoax. Dr. Uscinski’s research shows that belief in conspiracy theories cannot be condensed to one factor. Rather, he has identified two prominent factors, each with their own subcategories. Latent dispositions include conspiratorial thinking and denialism, and partisan group attachments lead to motivated reasoning and taking cues from elites within one’s own political party.
Party elites can certainly encourage these effects. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for instance, President Trump has called the virus a hoax. This led to like-minded media outlets repeating that message, thereby leading many conservatives around the country to share that opinion as well, in addition to buying into other conspiracy theories which questioned whether Dr. Fauci was part of the “Deep State” or even a real doctor.
Overall, Uscinski concluded, people rely on their existing predispositions, which lead them to either accept or deny conspiracy theories. Many people either are naturally suspicious of accepting information, while others subconsciously seek out their information to match their existing beliefs and discard what does not fit.
The Mueller investigation & impeachment
On September 15, Julia Azari of Marquette University spoke about the Mueller Report and President Trump’s impeachment in February 2020. She began by explaining the history of past impeachments in the United States, beginning with Andrew Jackson, then Bill Clinton, and added that Richard Nixon would have been impeached as well had he not resigned.
Azari also discussed the question of whether impeachment is a legal or political issue, adding that in his report, Robert Mueller suggested that impeachment is a matter that should be left to Congress. She noted that after the Watergate scandal, and Nixon’s resignation, presidential power was reigned in somewhat.
Though President Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives, he was not convicted by the Republican-controlled Senate in a vote that went almost entirely down party lines. Azari suggested that due to this, the President is somewhat indebted to Congress, but interestingly, Senate Republicans remain very loyal to the President, the opposite of what one might expect to happen following an impeachment process.
Politics in a pandemic
On September 24, Marc Hetherington, Professor of Political Science at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, spoke about the issues surrounding politics in a pandemic.
He explained that the issues dividing the major political parties have changed over time. In addition to splits in policy issues, Hetherington stated that some divides are experienced in one’s head, such as policy debates about the extent of government programs. He additionally stated, that partisan divides concerning issues of race, gender equality, and immigration, are experienced in one’s gut.
Hetherington also discussed the differences in how Democrats and Republicans see the world. Republicans tend to experience the world with what he referred to as a ‘fixed worldview’,with a mantra of the world being a dangerous place, that causes them to embrace tradition, hierarchy, and vigilance. Democrats, on the other hand, are more likely to have a ‘fluid worldview’, with the idea that the world is fun to explore in order to embrace social change, personal autonomy, and being more open to new experiences.
Protests, race, and politics
On September 22, Christopher Parker, professor of political science at the University of Washington, spoke about protests, race, and politics. He examined public perceptions of the coronavirus pandemic, the Black Lives Matter movement, and anti-lockdown protests.
Parker illustrated his talk with 2020 polling data that provided the necessary context to understand public perception of current events. This data compared views of the March on Washington during the civil rights movement to the modern-day Black Lives Matter movement, and showed that Americans feel more favorable towards the modern outcry for equality than they did in 1963.
With regard to the Covid-19 pandemic, he discussed American attitudes towards the Trump Administration’s response from a policy perspective. According to the poll data, Americans generally felt that the Trump Administration had not handled the pandemic well. Finally, he discussed the degree to which Americans felt that the BLM protests were a justified reason to gather in groups in comparison to that of the anti-lockdown protests. Poll data suggested that Americans felt more justified in protesting racial inequality during the pandemic than they did anti-mask protests.
Electoral College & electoral math
On September 29, Mathew Lebo, professor of political science at the University of Western Ontario, spoke about the electoral college, electoral math, and forecasting.
The Electoral College is comprised of 538 electors and during presidential elections the candidate who wins a plurality of votes takes all the state’s electoral vote, except in Maine and Nebraska, which award electors by congressional district.
Lebo noted that so-called ‘faithless electors’ can become an issue by not voting for the candidate who won their state as seen in the state of Washington in 2016. Lebo also talked about categories of election forecasting, including a traditional model that takes into account historical and long term political and economic forces. The other model he discussed consists of poll-aggregators and modelers such as fivethirtyeight.com.
According to the primary model, President Trump is favored to win re-election due to his strength in the GOP primaries and is the incumbent. However, Lebo elaborated that the election could be close due to the electoral college, the pandemic effect, and a handful of key battleground states.
Voting and election reform
On October 8, Barry Burden, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison presented the politics of voting and election reform.
Professor Burden discussed the dramatic transition to mail-in voting as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. He discussed the history of voting by mail in the United States in order to provide a context for its increased utilization in 2020.
Professor Burden analyzed the different ways states have approached voting by mail. Some states provide mail-in ballots to every registered voter, while others require an application in order to receive a mail-in ballot. Furthermore, he noted states with less experience conducting elections with mail-in ballots are likely to be delayed in their vote count reporting.
He concluded with the reasons that a mail-in ballot would be rejected and the implications that come along with their rejection. He provided analysis of why Republican voters were more likely to vote in person compared to Democratic voter’s utilization of mail-in ballots. Finally, Professor Burden discussed potential solutions for reform that states could adopt to mitigate the challenges posed by voting by mail.
Predicting elections: polls, models, and voting
On October 14, Charles Franklin of Marquette University discussed the inaccurate polling from the 2016 presidential election. He emphasized how the inaccuracy might have happened, and how it has affected public trust in polls since.
While some people believe that the ‘shy Trump voter’ was a significant factor in the polling problem, there has been no data to support the idea. Pollsters found that people were equally likely or unlikely to say they planned to vote for Trump.
Inaccuracy was based on the growing correlation between education level and party affiliation. Franklin stated that there has been a strong correlation between these variables in recent elections, and additionally that people with college degrees were more likely to respond to polls than people without. When combining these two factors, it is apparent that there was a large gap that failed to capture the true amount of people planning to vote Trump in 2016.
Additionally, Franklin stated that, despite what many think, polling is not “broken”. Although the state polling was inaccurate, the national polls turned out to be very reliable. Therefore, the public should still trust in polls.
Congressional campaigns
On October 21, Costas Panagopoulos, Professor of Political Science at Northeastern University discussed congressional elections and which parties hold the majority of power within the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Panagopoulos discussed the incumbency advantage and the nationalization of house elections and how they are increasingly influenced by national issues, rather than local problems. Also, Panagopoulos enumerated growing partisanship has sharply risen in both the House and Senate elections. Party identification surged as Republicans voted for the Republican candidates while Democratic voters did for Democratic candidates.
Panagopoulos stated that over the past 60 years, contact strategies have changed for presidential election periods. Data shows that strong partisan contact has outperformed the contact rate for pure independent voters. Additionally, turnout among strong partisans has exceeded over 80 percent while pure independent turnout has dropped roughly 30 percent.
In 2020, the party in control of the House of Representatives does not directly predict the outcome of the presidential election. Panagopoulos concluded Democrats are likely to retain their majority in the House of Representatives, but it is unclear what will happen with the Senate.
The Court, Judge Barrett, and the election
On October 26, Professor Amanda Hollis-Brusky of Pomona College discussed the increasing politicization of the Supreme Court, and how Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination and imminent confirmation would add to that dynamic.
Amanda Hollis-Brusky talked about the retirement of Justice Kennedy and the confirmations of Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. She added that Amy Coney Barrett’s conservative partisan affiliation would entrench the Supreme Court’s right-wing majority.
In order to prevent the Supreme Court from exclusively voting on a partisan basis, Justice Roberts will need to recruit at least one other member of the court to join him as a “swing voter”. This is particularly important if Joe Biden becomes President due to the ability to reshape the Supreme Court. The power to “pack” the Court is gaining political traction due to the reshuffling of the Court’s dominant partisan influence.
The Media
On October 28, Travis Ridout, director and distinguished professor of Political Science at Washington State University, and Kathleen Searles, Associate Professor at Louisiana State University discussed the role of the media during the 2020 election.
Ridout discussed his critique of 2016 presidential election media coverage between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. He concluded there was too much negative and scandalous coverage around Clinton’s emails. On the other hand, there was too much coverage of Donald Trump because of self-serving increasing media ratings for networks. He concluded that the media held both candidates to different standards.
Kathleen Searles discussed how the horse race framing of the election coverage is an incorrect way of covering presidential elections. Searles added that the media is driven by profits which effects what type of coverage we as viewers obtain. She stated that media outlets should center their coverage of presidential races around voters.
The Impact of Incarceration on Black families
On October 29, Shenique Davis, City University of New York Manhattan Borough Community College, and Bahiyyah Muhammad, Howard University, discussed the impact that incarceration has on Black families.
Davis noted that of the 2.3 million Americans that are currently incarcerated, Black people make up a disproportionate percentage of that population. Although Black people only make up 12-13% of the American population, they comprise a third of the prison population. She went on to say that although there has been a significant decrease in the amount of Black people incarcerated, they remain five times as likely to face incarceration than white people.
Muhammad discussed the impacts that a parent’s incarceration has on a child. There are many psychological effects including nightmares, confusion, and mental illness, along with facing the social stigma of having an incarcerated parent. The children are often lied to about where their parents are, causing them to act out and consequently fall into the school-to-prison pipeline. To counter some of these effects, she has created an “Iron Kids” program as part of her research, intended to give these children strength and resilience in the face of such challenges.
Post-election analysis
On November 11, Keena Lipsitz from the City University of New York, Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, and David Brady from Stanford University, discussed the causes and implications of the 2020 election results.
Keena Lipsitz focused on the litigation following the 2020 election, noting that this is likely to be the most litigated election in American history. She attributed the Trump campaign’s litigation to a misunderstanding of the role of courts. She added that the Trump campaign purpose was to raise funds for debts accumulated during the campaign and to undermine the legitimacy of American democracy. Finally, Professor Lipsitz discussed past judicial jurisprudence that will guide the judiciary in their decisions regarding the 2020 election.
Alan Abramowitz discussed how President-Elect Biden was able to achieve the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency. Specifically, he focused on Biden’s ability to flip the swing states that President Trump narrowly won in 2016. Professor Abramowitz also discussed the US House and Senate elections. He utilized public opinion polls to provide context for the results of the 2020 election and the increased political polarization that has come to characterize contemporary American politics.
David Brady argued that President-Elect Biden is perhaps the only candidate from the Democratic primary field that was capable of defeating President Trump. Professor Brady reinforced his argument as he discussed the near 50/50 split in public opinion polls within the consequential swing states that ultimately decided the winner of the 2020 presidential election.
From Where I Sit: Perspectives on Race and Justice with Omari Amili and Victoria Pratt
On November 17, 20
20, educator and activist Omari Amili, and former Judge Victoria Pratt discussed the disparities that exist in the criminal justice system. They shared the distinctive perspectives of a person who has been convicted of crimes and a judge.
Amili talked about his experiences as an African American man living in the predominantly white Pacific Northwest. When he was arrested for the crimes he committed with a white female accomplice, he was charged with thirty crimes and threatened with decades in prison while she was treated like a victim and was not charged with any crime. Although he pled guilty to avoid such a long sentence, he still had the consequences of not being able to vote or rent housing even once he was released.
Pratt discussed the way judges often “prey upon” disadvantaged people such as those with mental health conditions or those experiencing homelessness by imposing fines they could never afford. She believes that people are not wrong for distrusting judges because of the way disadvantaged people and people of color are treated in the criminal justice system, just like Amili. She also talked about seeing the results of targeted policing in her courtroom: a great amount of the people she sees are Black or Latinx, and this is caused by the fact that there is a far greater amount of policing in those areas than those which are predominantly white.
Intellectual property in Indian Country
On December 10, Professor Trevor Reed, Arizona State University, and Cora Tso, member of the Navajo Nation and ASU law graduate, discussed intellectual property in Indian County. The discussion was facilitated by WSU senior Vincent Gonzalez and sophomore Jamie Kness, who are both members of American Indian tribes.
Processor Reed talked about the appropriation of Native American voices. He discussed an example of this appropriation in the case of Laura Bolton, who recorded Indian Voices and profited from them without their compensation. Concerning recordings, Professor Reed described copyright protections and allowance of fair use.
Cora Tso discussed how the fashion world has appropriated traditional Native American clothing. She talked about the appropriation of Native American designs and names by the fashion industry for their profit without credit or compensation. She explains this appropriation in terms of trademarks and trademark infringement law.
Thirdly, Professor Reed talked about social media’s intellectual property policies and their connection to IP law. The presenters discussed YouTube, Facebook, and TikTok’s connection to copyright law.